• BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today
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    4 hours ago

    Iran has to treat countries like Israel and America as if they were training dogs, with positive reinforcement, and treats.

    “See, now that you are playing nice, we’ll open up the Strait, but we’re watching.”

    And those countries know Iran is holding a really tightly rolled up Sunday NY Times while they’re saying it, which the World has felt before.

    The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s “Thing,” more important than a nuclear weapon. A nuke is just dick-waving stuff, but cutting off the World’s supply of everything, is REAL.

    You don’t think they haven’t considered every tiny variable that would come into play in every imaginable scenario? These guys are as smart as anyone else on earth, and while our people are plotting how to make more money, they are considering every possible way they would have to defend their country, and take control of the Strait of Hormuz.

    And we saw them do exactly that, with a decentralized mobile artillery force that has allowed them to keep firing rockets weeks after they were said to be “obliterated.” A day after Trump and Hegseth celebrated their total dominance of the air, which would allow them to fly bombers deep into Iranian territory and bomb the remaining missile sights, Iran shot down an American plane, then shot down one of the rescue planes, too.

    The AmerIsraeli War® just offered Iran the world showcase to demonstrate their power, and succeeded in proving themselves to be as powerful as any nuclear country. Thanks, Trump.

    • benjirenji@slrpnk.net
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      3 hours ago

      And I don’t think they just embarrassed themselves militarily. Israel’s popularity is on its last leg due to them convincing [REDACTED] to commit this blunder. Trump who already destructed the US soft power demonstrated with his nightly tweeting and teenage girl behavior how he can’t get support from allies. While allies have tried to appease him before, almost everyone is looking for alternative partnerships now.

      • BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today
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        3 hours ago

        Absolutely. When this is over, the new non-MAGA president is going to have to go around the world, apologize for the darkness that we have emerged from, and pledging to be a good faith partner in the World.

        And they won’t believe a word of it until we can redeem ourselves in the eyes of our citizens, the World, and history. That will have to include punishment for the MAGA criminals, the prohibition of MAGA as a National Security Threat, and a newly reformed government that includes strong anti-corruption laws, Campaign Finance Reform, and strong guardrails on wealth.

        When we have demonstrated good faith government operations like that, maybe the rest of the World will be willing to learn to trust us.

  • perestroika@slrpnk.net
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    4 hours ago

    At the moment, it certainly is not open. Whatever the foreign minister of Iran said, ships ain’t passing. Possibly because the guy on radio from the IRGC navy says otherwise.

    Yesterday, traffic was almost 14% of the 60-day average, today it’s approximately 4%.

    https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/

    But of course I hope they’ll reach an agreement. Just treat everyone’s words as hot air for a while, because information takes time to travel on ground.

    • Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works
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      3 hours ago

      That’s because at this point it simply doesn’t matter what Iran or the US say. Remember, the strait is a very small part of a journey that takes weeks or months. No one is going to set sail on the vague hope that by the time they arrive at the active warzone everything will be peachy. Traffic won’t actually resume until there is a serious, credible peace agreement and even then it’s going to take more than a month to see those numbers climb back up.

      There are no quick fixes here.

  • redsand@infosec.pub
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    6 hours ago

    Insurance carriers need it to stay open 2+ weeks to start insuring vessels again.

    Israel will bomb Lebanon over the weekend. And we do it all again next week

  • Not_mikey@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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    6 hours ago

    Iranian media affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard described a limited reopening of the strait. It will close if the U.S. blockade continues, according to Tasnim News. President Donald Trump thanked Tehran for opening the strait, but said the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports remains in effect.

    Reopen the strait you crazy bastard.

  • FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world
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    7 hours ago

    Honestly shocked that both countries agreed. Donald and Keg-breath were desperate not to look like flailing pussies, but here we are.

    Now we have to hope Israel doesn’t fuck it up and that Donald isn’t using this as cover to do something worse, which unfortunately, we can’t discount.

  • pelespirit@sh.itjust.works
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    11 hours ago

    So, trump started a war and worldwide economic disaster and now he’s going to take credit as stopping a war, and then when prices come down a wee bit, take credit for that too, isn’t he?

    • limonfiesta@lemmy.world
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      8 hours ago

      I mean that’s not even possible.

      OPEC countries can’t just immediately restart shutdown production sites, and I’m talking about the ones that aren’t damaged.

      And given that this is simply for the duration of the ceasefire, it is unlikely to result in any production restarts.

      This will be useful for oil that is already in storage and ready to be loaded into tankers, as well as normal goods and trade i.e. consumables.

  • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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    10 hours ago

    Would normally be prelude to broader deal, but Iran has a history of being gullible on promises made to it.

    • RizzRustbolt@lemmy.world
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      7 hours ago

      They’re not being gullible here. The moment Israel violates the ceasefire, they’ll flip the sign back around on the Strait.