U.S. intelligence raises fears of civil unrest and state breakdown in Israel ahead of October 27 elections.
Well, I predict LOTS of civil wars in LOTS of places, especially as the environment collapses and basic needs aren’t met.
CIA reports what Isreal wants them to report. So Netanyahu wants you to think the country is close to collapse. So that he can justify emergency powers to keep himself in power indefinitely.
Yeah, the CIA isn’t just going to give out info for the sake of giving out info. I dont know what the thought is, but there’s something behind it.
Seems like many prominent politicians are aging, nearing the end of their lives and just want to go out with a bang.
I wanna go out with a bang. Not explosives, just with a pretty lady. (Like my wife)
Blink twice if she’s in the room with you
Well? Did you see? :)
I think they meant your eyes, but that works too.
But I did blink with my eyes! (it’s just hard to see over the internet in text)
I would also like to go out with your wife, can be at the same time, no judgement
Well, as long as we can coordinate on the dying bit, too, of course. ;-)
How like your wife does she need to be?
Real answer? I can’t imagine a scenario where this would happen, wife or anyone else. I won’t bore you with my health problems, but very few people facing terminal health issues probably end up having much good sex. lol.
Half-real answer? I mean, technically I’m poly, although not really “practicing”. So technically, probably doesn’t have to be very much like my wife.
Although given a choice between her or a stranger… probably go with her. lol.
Half-way serious answers to silly questions amuse me, thus my extraneous reply :)
“Who sought notoriety by destroying…”
That son-of-a-bitch! It worked!
The central isreal agency?
One of the deepest fractures in Israeli politics has emerged not over opposition to the country’s war crimes—but over who is expected to fight and who is exempt.
In case anyone’s confused the contradictions include regrets over what’s been done in Gaza.
Yup. Young men pretend to be Haredi for a few years to avoid service so now they only have the ultra theological nuts to draft from.
The August report, titled “Fracture From Within,” was compiled by experts in the CIA’s Red Cell, according to two U.S. sources who described the contents of the report to Drop Site News. The Red Cell, which is the unit responsible for providing “alternative analysis” within the agency, produced the assessment through a combination of open source information and U.S. intelligence… The CIA’s “red teams” are tasked with developing analysis and ideas that challenge prevailing assumptions and expose groupthink or blind spots that can take hold within the intelligence apparatus.
Basically, this is “what’s the weirdest shit that is kinda plausible if things don’t go how our consensus expects.” Useful I assume, but by definition unlikely.
Yeah, this is just some red-teaming of possibilities.
If that actually happens, the evangelicals and Millennialists are going to flip out.
Time to stock up on popcorn.
I had to read it twice because the first time I read “millenials” and was like wtf? Then I reread it and saw it was saying millenialists.
After I posted it, I realized that it could easily be misread but I don’t know of another term to use to describe Christians who believe in a post-apocalyptic millenium of peace & happiness (as long as you believe in Jesus, that is).
Definite popcorn time watching those two groups respond…
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Oh no, don’t threaten me with a good time
I don’t think it’ll be a good time in the short term.
Long term, maybe. I don’t know. But short term it’d result in massacres with no restraint whatsoever, not even what little restraint they have now.
That would be the weirdest possible turn of events.
And like, every single supporter of Israel would be stumped, because they would need to think about which Israel to back.
Absolute cinema. Good idea for a fictional alternate timeline.
Yeah if you think Lebanon’s political breakup was messy…
This would make that look like child’s play.
Yeah.
I know it’s natural to feel schadenfreude at the prospect of state collapse in Israel, but fwiw, I don’t look forward to it with any joy.
If this is the next phase, so be it. But it will be very, very ugly. The violent collapse of Israel will not lead to relief for Palestinians in the short term.
Still, I’ve said for years: what Israel is doing to the Palestinians they are doing to themselves. Watching the corrosion of Israeli society, their violence has always looked like a manic frenzy of mass-self harm.
The violent collapse of Israel will not lead to relief for Palestinians in the short term.
How so? Presumably they won’t have time to kill Palestinians if they’re too busy killing each other, and while that is a gruesome thought it’s not more gruesome than what’s already happening.
My suspicion is that a collapse in the Israeli state would look a lot like the present, spiraling out of anyone’s control: the settler terrorists would further ratchet up attacks in the West Bank; soldiers in the West Bank would harass and kill more brazenly, without fear of even the limited accountability that can come from a toothless denouncement or a suspension. Soldiers in Gaza might move from checkpoints and bombing runs to militia pogroms driving through streets gunning down civilians. The limited protections for the relatively privileged Arabs & non-Jews within the '48 borders could evaporate: mobs dragging women from their homes for sexual violence and murder in the daylit streets. And all of this would likely be in a shroud of fog, as the limited journalistic capacity that occasionally breaks through to international attention is drowned out by attention on riots in the imperial core of the nation.
In the long term, this could be a step towards a better future. But in the short term I would expect a shift from organized military-led genocide to a more traditional form of rabid mass ethnic killing.
It’s hard to believe, but Israel currently has restraint. Yes, they’re slow-motion genociding the Palestinians in a grindingly cruel manner, but the reason it’s slow-motion is because they have endless debates and factions and desire not to completely rip their masks off while the rest of the world watches and could maybe react on some level.
If Israel turns into full blown civil war all that restraint goes away. If you’re already at the point where you’re willing to gun down fellow Jews, why not mow down a bunch of Palestinian refugees along the way? If you’re not even in control of all of Israel, where can you move Palestinians to get them out of your way? Just kill 'em.
I have no idea what is best in the short term. I have no idea what is best in the long term. Israel is just fucked. I wish there was some way for all the people who want to kill each other to just go ahead and do that without everyone else getting trapped in the crossfire.
I’ve said for years: what Israel is doing to the Palestinians they are doing to themselves.
wow. that is honestly the first original thought I have heard about the ongoing troubles between these 2 groups of people fighting over the same land, both claiming it to be their own, exclusively…
something in the same spirit, but from a different era, different war…
Let’s hope that happens soon! Holding my thumbs!
I don’t celebrate war or violence of any kind
But if that’s how it must go…(͡•_ ͡• )
Ditto
Could but very unlikely. Guess cia needs to consider everything. Also we need to stop using civil war to mean civil unrest.
Yes, very forward looking and specualtive…
Like assassinating Castro with exploding cigars. .
Huh they don’t want Israel to collapse because reasons.
Hopefully we see a repeat of the famous kingdom of Israel and kingdom of Judah split
Interesting variation on history repeating itself. Who is Bibi in all of this? Herod Antipas?
A) US Intelligence says a lot of things.
B) Do you think Trump would allow any kind of major unrest in Israel right now?
I’m sure he’s asking grok how to stop it right this minute.
Grok: nuke it
ChatGPT: Bop it.
Ah yes, the zero state solution.
Wow! Nailed it!
AGI has been reached
B) the same Trump that screwed up the US’s grip in the middle east and ruined the world economy in the process, or the Trump that surrendered to the Taliban?
And that all enriched him and his friends/family significantly. Israel, however, likely has real dirt on him and his family, so protecting them is in his best interest.
Yes?
Do you think Trump would allow any kind of major unrest in Israel right now?
In the end Trump only cares about Trump. He will do or say anything to enrich himself or curry favour. Israel isn’t as important as you’d think.
He’d probably throw his own mother under a bus to ‘win’ the midterms. Or for $2k
Agreed. But the Mossad, Israeli’s spy org, was heavily connected to Epstein. You might have heard of him and his connection to Trump. If Trump is at all worried about what info on him they have, he might be willing to protect them to protect himself.
He’d probably throw his own mother under a bus to ‘win’ the midterms.
or any of his wives.
As if Trump’s the one running the show. He’s more of a mascot of the US empire than anything. Takes all the punches while the secret government of oligarchs remains invisible
Trump doesn’t have the capability to allow or disallow anything in Israel.
He can send in the US military to protect Netanyahu and stabilize the established government. He can also send financial aid to help fund whatever infighting they have.
Do you think Trump would allow
Do you think Trump can allow or disallow anything???
Do you think the US military can’t come in and help stabilize a government that is experiencing internal fighting? Do you think financial aid to a sitting government doesn’t help it deal with civil infighting?
Do you think Trump has any qualms whatsoever giving away taxpayer money or sending in the US military if it helps him somehow, like maybe because Netanyahu has dirt on him?
C) both A and B
