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Cake day: February 15th, 2024

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  • The August report, titled “Fracture From Within,” was compiled by experts in the CIA’s Red Cell, according to two U.S. sources who described the contents of the report to Drop Site News. The Red Cell, which is the unit responsible for providing “alternative analysis” within the agency, produced the assessment through a combination of open source information and U.S. intelligence… The CIA’s “red teams” are tasked with developing analysis and ideas that challenge prevailing assumptions and expose groupthink or blind spots that can take hold within the intelligence apparatus.

    Basically, this is “what’s the weirdest shit that is kinda plausible if things don’t go how our consensus expects.” Useful I assume, but by definition unlikely.




  • Not permanent, but it’s gonna be a while this time. US foreign policy regarding its allies used to be predictable enough that they could make long term plans and expect things that were patently useful to both sides would not be indiscriminately torpedoed. Now, you can mostly hope that the Democrats are on board with that as a broad philosophy, though they’re navigating populist waters that could get rocky with isolationism, but right now the other party in a closely matched two-party system can’t even be trusted not to tweet the economic system into existential peril or threaten literal invasions of allies, to say nothing of their simply being quite bad at efficient governance or diplomatic messaging.

    America’s allies will welcome any Democratic administration, and anything that can get better for the duration of one probably will (e.g. Visas, retaliatory tariffs, etc.), but diversifying from the dollar as a reserve currency, building trade networks that can minimize exposure to American political volatility, and even exploring security arrangements that imagine post-NATO scenarios, all that is going to continue unless we see a good two decades or more of non-insane foreign policy from both US parties. Not even humane or optimal, just not batshit crazy.










    1. Important context: he’s talking to Laura Loomer, so trying to communicate to a skeptical White House that supporting Ukraine is supporting the values of Trump’s base. Ukrainian propaganda is real and I don’t judge them for deploying it, but we also don’t want to presume that statements like this are not calculated. That said…

    2. I mean, he’s not wrong. You can (and I’d argue should) stop well short of confiscation when trying to keep religion from being a toxic voice in a country’s political discourse. However, raising it in this conversation, when Putin seems more interested in co-opting religion rather than suppressing it, and that in a way that MAGAs would frankly find to be a useful model, makes me think of it more as a hail mary (LOL) than anything else.

    3. The last line of the article gave me pause, so in investigating this source, it appears to be an arm of the UOC-Moscow Patriarchate, and while I am concerned by any curtailment of the free exercise of religion, the Russian Orthodox church has been largely co-opted by the Putin government, leading the ecumenical patriarch in Istanbul to cut the Ukraininan church free from Moscow, and now the UOC-MP seems to be trying to have its cake and eat it to with regard to respecting Moscow without fully toeing the line on the ROC’s pro-war rhetoric. The argument would come down to whether the Russian Church is de facto an arm of the Russian state. At any rate, the site definitely has an agenda here.