1.00 • 1 death = 1 death Vs. 0.25 • 5 deaths = 1.25 deaths
On average you’re better off not pulling the lever.
Implying you’ll be running this multiple times?
The number of attempts is not mathematically affecting the outcome of a single attempts - statistics don’t “owe you” any specific outcomes, just based on previous outcomes. It will be the same formula for each
I didn’t need math to know that the only way I see a guy beheaded is if I don’t pull the lever, so we got to the same answer.
Statistics also won’t help you with the guilt when the tram runs over 5 people and now it’s just you and the one guy you saved now trauma bonded.
Implying I haven’t already
Oh that’s an interesting one. The expected value is higher if you pull the lever, so based on pure logic you shouldn’t.
But I think I would, hoping for that 3/4 where I don’t live with the guilt. I guess you can’t expected value qualitative factors. But I always roll 1s in Blood Bowl so maybe that’s dangerous.
A true degenerate would pull the lever, hit no one, and immediately pull the lever again yelling ‘double or nothing!’
Something other posters have overlooked here is that one life is guaranteed to be saved if you pull the lever. There are 5 tracks in the image, but the ratios use quarters. If you pull the lever, you have saved one life. You have a 75% chance that you have saved one life with no consequences. You have a 25% chance of killing a net of 4 people. By that method, your expected number of kills is 1, no matter your choice.
However, I really think I look at it more on the chance of good outcomes, personally. If I pull the lever I have a 75% chance of saving everyone, and only a 25% chance of bad outcomes. I can live with that choice. I can live with the decision to take action, because to not take action is still choice.
Yeah same even without all the math I’d sleep much better knowing I did something to potentially help than just lying down and doing nothing.
You can choose a ready guide in some celestial voice
If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice
You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill
I will choose a path that’s clear, I will choose Freewill
this is a stats problem. you have a 2 in 5 chance of someone getting killed.
without doing the math I’d say you have a 20% chance of killing someone by pulling the lever but have a 100% chance by doing nothing.
I’ll take my chances and pull the lever three times which should reduce that 20% to about 10%.
So, if I do nothing, I see one death, guaranteed?
I’m going with the sure thing, I’m no gambler.
what company manufactured the trolley ? it is injured ?
