Donald Trump’s bruising return to the White House has sent many longtime foreign allies scrambling to get their distance, and according to a new piece from The Atlantic, that distance will last long after Trump is gone.
Trump’s second term as president has been marked by notable and widespread disrespect toward nations once seen as close U.S. allies. Between his attempts to level massive tariffs against nearly every nation in the world and his frequent breaches of diplomatic norms, Trump has created a hostile global environment in which allies no longer feel safe trusting in the stability of the U.S.
In a new piece for The Atlantic on Tuesday, staff writer Vivian Salama argued that this new dynamic, in which the nations of the world are working to establish a safe distance from the U.S., is bound to become the new normal for years to come, even after Trump leaves office and is potentially replaced by a more traditional, dependable administration.
There is a great deal in what you say that I heartily agree with, and a few things that I don’t. I’m not European, although I do visit annually, so I have no horse in that race.
I would say that you repeat a tired American trope that has been outdated for at least 35 years now. That Europe gets more out of the NATO than America does.
The US gets a great deal out of NATO, arguably all lot more than Europe gets. For a start, the US has 31 permamant military bases across Europe and free access to another 19 hosted by member countries. It doesn’t really need to ask permission on how it operates on any of them. It also maintains another 275 smaller units and installations for free. This is not a one-way deal for Europe. For the US, a country that insists on projecting power to influence national policy objectives, the ability to operate like this is incredible. Does it pay rent? No. Does it seek agreement with the host country? No. It bombs first and informs later.
Secondly, wherever possible it forces US military hardware onto European countries by way of ‘interoperability’. Those F35s provide jobs for US workers. Same with parts, same bombs and weapon systems. All that hard cash flows back to the US. There is a reason why US administrations bitch and moan about Europe not pulling it’s weight on NATO but still won’t pull out of the region. It’s because the US gets a massive indirect benefit from the deal.
But what does Europe get in return? It’s supposed to be security guarantees. But the only country that has triggered NATO’s Article Five has been the US following 9/11. Hundreds of Europeans died in defence of what happened in far-off New York. Not that this has been appreciated by Trump.
Lastly, the biggest threat to Europe is Putin. And what has been the US response? Not great. All of Europe has been watching and wondering has all this been worth it. The one reason Europe has been tolerating America taking over much of its foreign policy is for a security trade-off. Now it seems the arrangement is worthless.
I’m not European, but I’m watching events. Nothing dramatic will happen in the short term. Spain cancelled it’s F35 contract. European countries have universally increased their defence budgets, not from US pressure, but from the realisation that security is unlikely to arrive from America. Countries have failed to support the US openly. First time since WW2. The whole world turned their back on the stupid Iran war. Things have changed irrevocably. However, they will only visibly change over time. You guys are sleepwalking into isolation.
Let’s revisit the subject in 10 years and see how things have turned out?
I appreciate your response both in quality and in tone. Thanks for that.
To be clear, I never meant to imply that the US gets nothing out of NATO. It is clear that we do for the reasons you mentioned and countless others. I was simply saying, in much the same way you did, that EU nations allowed that situation to exist because spending less on defense was good for them domestically in an economic sense. It was not a good decision beyond the short term from a security perspective unless the US could be guaranteed to be a righteous actor forever and that is obviously not something that can ever be guaranteed. Treaties and alliances are great. Dependence is not.
It is true that some countries have taken action to distance themselves from the US under Trump. It is also true that many of the citizens of the EU want their governments to take more action on that front. As an American, I would rather the EU lead the world in most respects as I trust most of their governmental systems to represent their people better than ours does.
Still, money rules the world and the US has a lot of it. Greed is a powerful motivator and I would bet that it is going to entice a lot of European politicians to make unpopular deals with the US and it’s corporate representatives under the next administration. Despite the EU as a whole better representing it’s people there are still too many instances of their governments manipulating or outright ignoring popular sentiments for me to believe that something like sidelining the US is within the realm of possibility, even if most of their citizens wanted to do so.
As a last note I would add that I believe eliminating reliance on the US is something the EU absolutely should do as much as possible. It is the only reasonable answer to the insanity taking place in our government. Nothing I’ve said should discourage action towards that goal. I’m just trying to be realistic about how I see that playing out.