This article is a few days old, but I think it’s still interesting. The Polish Deputy Minister for Defence said this:
Today I wouldn’t even set a deadline anymore. Even some large-scale provocation by the Kremlin could quite plausibly happen within a matter of months.
Will Russia attack or sabotage NATO more than it is already doing? I hope not, but there have been indications in the news recently that such things could happen soon.
I found this article after googling, because this guy’s comments were referred to in another article today about the Russian government’s anger towards the UK.
Someone more knowledgeable in the matter - what’s up with Poland? Russia constantly threatens UK, they have launched drones into Baltics, together with Belarus they try to bring sleeper agents into Latvia and Lithuania, they even threaten France, but Poland? Feels like that is amongst the most silent “fronts” yet Poland acts like they’re next. I’d actually be worried about Lithuania or Latvia.
They threaten the UK, France, Germany, etc for their internal audience, not the external one. To a middle class Russian (the target audience), those are “the west”, great empires, powerful players in the great game of geopolitics. It’s an empty affirmation to Russian citizens that they’re still at the big boy table. It would look bad internally threatening “weak Poland” without following through.
That doesn’t change or connect at all with the actual danger of an invasion. Before the full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia was “trying to negotiate between Ukraine and separatists”, they weren’t saber rattling. They quietly put their troops on the border for a “training exercise”, denied they were preparing for an invasion despite the British screaming from the rooftops, and then went in.
Specifically about Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia: yes, they’re in more danger than Poland, but an attack on them would pull Poland in. Poland sees an attack on them to be fundamentally the same as an attack on Poland.
denied they were preparing for an invasion despite the British screaming from the rooftops, and then went in.
The British and the Americans were rooftop screaming in concert:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia
I think in part because they know Poland will actually punch back, others will continue to play spy games and PR crap. Poland is ready to punch
Poland remembers, that’s why.
Yeah nah, Russia can’t, it is as simple as that.
They can’t win against Ukraine, a country rifled with corruption and virtually no army.
Poland is well ahead of Russia.
That doesn’t stop them from sending people into the meat grinder every day and bombing civilians every night. There are still many lives lost and ruined. Don’t take this threat lightly.
People keep thinking Russia would attack in order to conquer and occupy Europe for some reason. I doubt that would be the plan.
Russian economy is focused on weapon production now. Changing this focus would take time and cost a lot of money. Instead of doing that they can keep manufacturing weapons and send couple hundred thousand of their people to die in another war. Any direct attack on EU member would most likely send the entire block into recession. China could buy a lot of oil from Russia and help their economy in other ways in exchange for that favor.
Basically the fear is that another war is the easiest and best way to keep Russian economy running. The only cost would be more dead Russians and Putin doesn’t care about those.
