I want to believe that is true, but things are still dire for Ukraine. Russia is still constantly creeping forward, taking territory little by little.
Ukraine is doing the right thing though, starve Russia of fuel. With enough of that, they won’t be able to resupply their troops and their war machine will collapse.
Ukraine is starting to regain more ground than it is losing for the first time since 2023. Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in the last two weeks of February 2026 for the first time since the Summer 2023 counteroffensive. Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometers of territory in April 2026. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on May 15 that precise Ukrainian strikes, the destruction of Russian reserves, and constant pressure on Russian assault units have allowed Ukrainian forces to increasingly seize the tactical initiative and force Russian forces to react to a Ukrainian-defined operational tempo.
Since February (the timeline you are claiming), Ukraine has lost territory. Not a lot, but Russia is creeping forward. Kostiantynivka in particular seems like it’s in trouble.
Now please understand, I don’t actually think it matters who gains a km here or there. Ukraine is doing the right thing by enforcing “long range sanctions”, and I think they’re going to win because of it. But I’m under no illusions that Ukraine is capturing more territory than they are losing right now.
I think there are lots of conflicting sources. (I’m sure ISW knows better than I do, I’m an internet rando.) Other visualizations I’ve looked at show very slow advances over the last couple of months.
Between February and now that is true, but the last few months have seen small net gains by Ukraine. Whether that trend holds out is up in the air, but they have been doing a number on Russian logistics. Crimea in particular is struggling mightily with fuel shortages.
I want to believe that is true, but things are still dire for Ukraine. Russia is still constantly creeping forward, taking territory little by little.
Ukraine is doing the right thing though, starve Russia of fuel. With enough of that, they won’t be able to resupply their troops and their war machine will collapse.
Not to mention the thousands of children Russia kidnapped, and god knows what happened to them.
The tide has turned.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/ukraines-intermediate-range-strike-campaign-and-new-mechanized-attacks-herald-the-start-of-a-new-phase-of-the-war/
Since February (the timeline you are claiming), Ukraine has lost territory. Not a lot, but Russia is creeping forward. Kostiantynivka in particular seems like it’s in trouble.
Now please understand, I don’t actually think it matters who gains a km here or there. Ukraine is doing the right thing by enforcing “long range sanctions”, and I think they’re going to win because of it. But I’m under no illusions that Ukraine is capturing more territory than they are losing right now.
Did they? Someone made a graph based on ISW data that showed the last few months as Ukraine gaining on net
I think there are lots of conflicting sources. (I’m sure ISW knows better than I do, I’m an internet rando.) Other visualizations I’ve looked at show very slow advances over the last couple of months.
Between February and now that is true, but the last few months have seen small net gains by Ukraine. Whether that trend holds out is up in the air, but they have been doing a number on Russian logistics. Crimea in particular is struggling mightily with fuel shortages.