Sources:
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/03/the-f-47-fighter-cost-problem-no-one-wants-to-touch/
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-shahed-drones-gulf-patriot-air-defence-cost-crisis/ (assuming 2 missiles to each drone and the lowest estimate of drone costs)
I think that’s a serious misreading of what’s happening in Iran.
Air superiority still matters a lot. But the way you establish air superiority is by systematically annihilating the enemy air defenses.
Remember all those Tomahawks, ATCMS, and other PrSMs the US absolutely dumped into Iran until their supplies started to run low? Yeah, you’re supposed to use those to kill the enemy’s air defence. That’s exactly what they’re good at. Instead the US just kind of threw them at whatever, including girls schools. Then they threw their aircraft at a still largely functional air defence network and were surprised when they got shot at.
The same thing is happening in Ukraine. Russia wasted their high end cruise missiles blowing up apartment buildings and then sent poorly trained pilots to fly so low and slow that they could be hit by MANPADS.
That’s not supposed to be possible. Shoulder mounted anti air is basically useless against a jet fighter flown by a competent pilot (they’re meant for killing helicopters). The only reason Ukraine is killing Migs with them is because the Russian pilots are so bad.
Nothing has changed about the importance of air superiority. We’re just watching two object lessons in how to completely fuck up getting air superiority.
My guess is the US didn’t take out Iranian air defenses because they can’t; maybe it’s memory or imagination, but I thought they’re underground until they’re in use, or they only turn on when there’s been a visual, or there are a ton of cheaper decoys, or a combination of the three.
Damn, that’s pretty embarassing for the Russians, though.
Underground air defense systems aren’t a thing. The US is perfectly capable of identifying likely Iranian air defence sites. In theory.
They just suck at this. There’s no excuse for it. Iran isn’t pulling some crazy James Bond villain shit. The US Military is just run by total fucking clowns, because they hired an alcoholic TV personality to run the show and he chased out everyone with an ounce of competence.