Threat of war. OK, let’s think this through. The three threats I could think of are
Russia intensifies its attacks. Threat of conventional war low, threat of attacks to critical infrastructure high. Effects would be localized and short-term. I rate this highest, because it’s currently underway.
Donnie Darko presses the big red button. If this happens, all bets are off and who knows how long the go bag lasts. I rate this low.
European civil unrest. Enabled by Russian shaping of public opinion, see first point. Possible, but I have faith in the resilience of a continent where most people don’t want yet another world war. Low Risk.
It’s always better to be safe than sorry, but I wouldn’t overstate the risk of all out war or unrest.
In that part of the world where quantity is not quality. But if you do have your own thoughts, then feel free to share them. That’s what we’re here for.
A Russian attack is actually far more likely than you realise; There has been numerous signs of Russia prepareing for a direct attack on NATO. Now it won’t be an all out invasion the goal will be to keep things murky enough were it’s clearly an act of war but be easy enough to justify not getting involved. Their idea is that if once article 5 is invoked and enough big members refuse their obligations NATO will break and they can pick off members as they like.
Now the US under dumb donnie is very likely to ignore their legal obligations to their NATO allies and if the Russians have enough of their hooks into enough NATO members they might be able to engineer enough inaction to pull it off.
You have to understand that they genuinely believe they are fighting a proxy war against NATO in Ukraine and that in order to turn things around they have to beat NATO and that a lot of their internal propaganda is about how they could beat NATO in a fight (like claiming they could destroy England with a tsunami causing nuclear torpedo)
But European leaders know what game is being played here. Which is why the drone attacks haven’t resulted in article 5 being invoked. But if Russia overplays their hand they could end in a conventional war with all of Europe. And their cards are hitting the table soon.
Russia doesn’t have the means for conventional war against NATO. If they did, the war in Ukraine would look much different. The current asymmetric attacks will increase, I am sure. But nothing to warrant Article 5. That would play into Putins hands and the Europeans know that.
Possible, but I have faith in the resilience of a continent where most people don’t want yet another world war.
I’d say they care more that they don’t want to personally experience war again, they have no problem allowing a “world war” to happen if it’s mainly in the global south.
Are we? I’m only a sample of « the Europeans » but I absolutely don’t want any more war be it in the south or elsewhere.
Who the fuck are you to say that we don’t have the minimum moral standard to wish peace unto others?
Because yall seem fine with putting Ukraine through the grinder, and your comfort is dependent on violence in the global south at this time (same situation as the US). I do hope you personally are not one of these people, but it certainly seems like a majority of you. The contastant rightward shift of electeds is a strong indicator.
Threat of war. OK, let’s think this through. The three threats I could think of are
It’s always better to be safe than sorry, but I wouldn’t overstate the risk of all out war or unrest.
where in the world do three bullet points qualifiy as “thought through”?
In that part of the world where quantity is not quality. But if you do have your own thoughts, then feel free to share them. That’s what we’re here for.
A Russian attack is actually far more likely than you realise; There has been numerous signs of Russia prepareing for a direct attack on NATO. Now it won’t be an all out invasion the goal will be to keep things murky enough were it’s clearly an act of war but be easy enough to justify not getting involved. Their idea is that if once article 5 is invoked and enough big members refuse their obligations NATO will break and they can pick off members as they like.
Now the US under dumb donnie is very likely to ignore their legal obligations to their NATO allies and if the Russians have enough of their hooks into enough NATO members they might be able to engineer enough inaction to pull it off.
You have to understand that they genuinely believe they are fighting a proxy war against NATO in Ukraine and that in order to turn things around they have to beat NATO and that a lot of their internal propaganda is about how they could beat NATO in a fight (like claiming they could destroy England with a tsunami causing nuclear torpedo)
But European leaders know what game is being played here. Which is why the drone attacks haven’t resulted in article 5 being invoked. But if Russia overplays their hand they could end in a conventional war with all of Europe. And their cards are hitting the table soon.
Russia doesn’t have the means for conventional war against NATO. If they did, the war in Ukraine would look much different. The current asymmetric attacks will increase, I am sure. But nothing to warrant Article 5. That would play into Putins hands and the Europeans know that.
I’d say they care more that they don’t want to personally experience war again, they have no problem allowing a “world war” to happen if it’s mainly in the global south.
Are we? I’m only a sample of « the Europeans » but I absolutely don’t want any more war be it in the south or elsewhere. Who the fuck are you to say that we don’t have the minimum moral standard to wish peace unto others?
Because yall seem fine with putting Ukraine through the grinder, and your comfort is dependent on violence in the global south at this time (same situation as the US). I do hope you personally are not one of these people, but it certainly seems like a majority of you. The contastant rightward shift of electeds is a strong indicator.
I’m pretty sure that you style of ostracising is partially what is driving fellow persons to further polirize themselves.
I’m curious to know where you’re from to allow yourself to be such a judge….
the water wars will start soon
Greece-Turkey-Cyrpus-Israel, too.