From a purely strategic perspective wouldn’t the US be better off saying “no more attacks on shipping or we destroy Karg island entirely”?
Karg:
is a legit military target.
doesn’t contain any civilian housing etc.
would cripple all IRGC income if destroyed.
would reverse any pragmatic incentive China has to side with Iran at all. If the realistic possibility of getting oil from Iran itself drops to zero, Chinas incentive flips to simply getting and keeping the straight open to all shipping.
A) That is even more escalatory, and will lead Iran attacking more oil infrastructure in the region.
B) We can only destroy Karg Island once
C) The US had demonstrated an ability to block Iranian exports by navel power, which can be turned on and off as needed.
D) If destructive dominance were enough to win the war, the US would have one it long ago. Just like they would have won in Afghanistan
Iran views this war as existential, and the Strait as their most significant national defense asset. They are not going to give it up over concerns about oil revenue.
From a purely strategic perspective wouldn’t the US be better off saying “no more attacks on shipping or we destroy Karg island entirely”?
Karg:
From a purely strategic perspective literally every move they’ve made is profoundly stupid
A) That is even more escalatory, and will lead Iran attacking more oil infrastructure in the region.
B) We can only destroy Karg Island once
C) The US had demonstrated an ability to block Iranian exports by navel power, which can be turned on and off as needed.
D) If destructive dominance were enough to win the war, the US would have one it long ago. Just like they would have won in Afghanistan
Iran views this war as existential, and the Strait as their most significant national defense asset. They are not going to give it up over concerns about oil revenue.
These guys wish they had that kind of navel power. They don’t. Have you seen how much they drink?