• Uriel238 [all pronouns]@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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    13 hours ago

    Iran now has proof of concept, that closing the Strait of Hormuz serves as a deterrent for war as good as the capacity of nuclear response. In fact, it’s better in that it’s more useful. No nation yet dares to actually use nukes that they have (for instance, Russa hasn’t threatened nuclear escalation as the US and Europe support Ukraine, and Ukraine might still join NATO.) Closing the strait does economic damage, but much less physical damage, so it’s Iran is freer to close the strait more readily than they could be with any nuclear weapon.

    So now Iran has shown that power, it is stronger for it on the international stage, and as a result Israel is now weaker. We’re already seeing this as Iran uses the closed strait to pressure the US to, in turn, pressure Israel to stop attacking Syria.

    If Netanyahu hadn’t pressured the US to attack Iran, then the IDF could probably continue to war on Syria without Iran closing the strait, and the US would not be under pressure by Iran. Also the people of the US might disapprove of Israel less and the influence of AIPAC money in US elections would likely be less of an issue. There’s also pressure in the US for Congress to stop budgeting for materiel for Israel.

    Recently, Israel intended an air strike on a plane full of Iranian negotiators, but the US warned Tehran about it and the plane was diverted, so we’re already seeing signs that the alliance between the US and Israel is under stress.