Escalation trap

  • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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    5 hours ago

    This is a massively positive development hidden in Trumpspeak headline. The important part of his tweet was “Israel will never/not hit Iranian energy again”. Gabbard also said “Israel objectives not the same as US”. All of this put the US firmly in a corner if its master violates US objectives (which were also narrowed by Hegseth to navy, missiles, nuclear program).

    You should understand this development as a near term omen for peace instead of escalation.

    • LeonineAlpha@sh.itjust.works
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      2 hours ago

      Cause, how?

      USA gonna actually, really, seriously, irrevocably, cut Israeli arms supplies? If Israel crosses THAT line (again, after every other line)?

      Even if now they will (they wont) but even if, why would Israel believe them? Why would Iran trust them?

      • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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        21 minutes ago

        Why would Iran trust them?

        Instead of JCPOA 2.0, very large volume of cash or Chinese RMB for uranium does not require Iran trust. Just payment in advance.

        It’s not a question of Iran trusting Israel to not attack their energy, it’s Iran with the power of destroying triple the energy in the GCC as a response, that forced the US to contain Israel.

    • Avid Amoeba@lemmy.ca
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      4 hours ago

      Could it be just good cop / bad cop like they played during the so called negotiations?

      • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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        4 hours ago

        “Israel will not do it again” is a firm corner to back himself into. Keep him in that corner is political opportunity. That kompromatted pedo in chief can never resist master just forces the pedo in chief to more fully serve master.

    • HumanOnEarth@lemmy.ca
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      4 hours ago

      I’m not sure how. You expect the Iranian regime to just play nice? The US literally just removed the olive branch from one of their coins. That doesn’t just happen on a whim.

      This is existential for the Iranian regime and Trump nor Israel can live with the regime staying in power after this. The only option really is complete unconditional surrender or complete destruction. Guess which one is likely to happen with a religiously extreme regime and its hardline supporters.

      Boots on the ground. 100% certainty. Check back in a month latest.

      • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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        3 hours ago

        JCPOA 2.0 or buying Uranium for $50m/kg. Planes full of cash sent in 2 weeks, latest :P

        I expect Iran to get a peace treaty on their terms, as the end game. Hegseth’s new “clear objectives” are full victory has been fully accomplished other than “Iran will never have a nuclear program”. That is the easiest thing to accomplish in the world… if you don’t send Mossad Israel-first agents in as the negotiators.