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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: November 7th, 2025

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  • Ultimately we’re both speculating. We can’t know why exactly Russia has been attacking Georgia and Ukraine. I see your point that historically Russia has tried to consolidate both territory and ethnic groups; my assessment is that if they wanted farmland there were much easier targets than Ukraine. But I think we’re in agreement that Russia is not trustworthy, having conducted all kinds of covert operations inside the EU and constantly testing European defenses.

    I think that most people 10 years ago thought that Russia would just have steamrolled Ukraine, and that’s the point I tried to make with my first comment. I was the complete opposite, but for the record, I wasn’t right either! I thought that Russia knew that it wasn’t going to be able to take enough territory in Ukraine to end up with a long-term sustainable situation. So I genuinely didn’t take the threat seriously, up until they started building field hospitals at the border, and I barely believed it even then.

    So I’m not at all holier than thou here. I’m just frustrated that more isn’t done to preempt the United States while they’re on a trajectory that I think they’ve been telegraphing quite clearly.


  • Russia has gas and agriculture. No need for them to reach for Ukraine’s. But the prospect of losing Crimea once the lease was up for their naval base on the other hand, I think Putin saw as existential. And taking it was a slippery slope, because once Ukraine diverted water from Crimea they needed the provinces upstream from Crimea, and here we are.

    Again, not making excuses for Putin. As you point out, Russia has not given up on imperialism. All of Russia’s bordering states have to be constantly vigilant of this, and not just in Europe for that matter. Individual countries like Latvia can’t ward off Russia, so a defense alliance is necessary for sure.

    But ultimately I think that for Europe, Russia is a nuisance compared to the United States.


  • Not to trivialize the threat from Russia, but as we have seen they have a very hard time taking territory from Ukraine. Of course, the US has supplied Ukraine with arms and intelligence which has helped Ukraine in that war, but it’s not the decisive factor here. The truth is that Russia does not have the strength to stand up to the EU, that’s why I used the “credible” signifier.

    And I don’t want to make excuses for Putin, but economic cooperation between Russia and the EU might have worked to defuse tensions if the USA wasn’t playing their “grand chessboard” all over the world, including in Europe.



  • This is what we expect from Americans though. They decry the loss of American lives, even when those specific persons were involved in murdering people who aren’t and don’t want to be American.

    You’ll notice that people from other places don’t talk that way. Europeans don’t talk about “French lives,” Japanese don’t talk about “Japanese lives,” and Iranians don’t talk about “Iranian lives.” It’s a uniquely American thing and it’s all about an ingrained sense of American exceptionalism.