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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: September 15th, 2023

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  • I read up on it. I think the main thing was the many Kurds, especially Turkish Kurds, don’t want to fight Turkey anymore. The PKK had a lot of trouble recruiting people. And many Kurdish leaders are actually allied with Erdogan. I believe Erdogan has two Kurdish ministers.

    But with their autonomy in Syria and Iraq, the hardliners were still holding out and hopeful.

    However, in Syria, Turkey dealt them quite some hard blows these past years and got the US under Trump to abandon them. The final piece is that the new Syrian regime is allied with Turkey and Trump is back in office.

    So they basically have a choice, stop fighting or look forward to years of fighting against bayraktar drones.

    Of course, I am sure Erdogan put in a lot of deal sweeteners that we don’t know about. At the end of the day, Turkey and Syria both need peace with the Kurds for their own stability and growth. And the Kurds have significant leverage, even if independence is not in the cards.



  • We (Europe) already did most of the heavy lifting for Ukraine. The US mostly gave old stockpiles of weapons that they would’ve needed to destroy anyway. We are the ones actually paying cash to keep them afloat.

    The problem is, in the post-WW2 order, our defense and our defense industry was made dependent on the USA by design. And even up until last November, Europe didn’t want to challenge this arrangement and just went full steam ahead with this arrangement, ordering US made weapons. I think Europe was in denial that Biden could lose or that NATO could ever end.

    Only France, and to a limited extent, Sweden and Turkey, have independent defense industries.

    In the future, we will have it again. And Ukraine will actually be a key player.

    But in the short term, there is no magical button to press that can produce the arms.

    Undoing decades of integration isn’t going to be easy.


  • No it would not be even close to being equivalent to gov+dd, because the government and fund would be totally separate power structures.

    You could modify the scheme so that dividends and profits only go to retirees, which would make it a giant retirement fund.

    Some people argue China is capitalist and others argue it is socialist or communist.

    Truth is, these are all 19th century debates on archaic terms. Every developed country today has a mixed-mode economy with some form of capitalism combined with some form of communism.

    It’s more fruitful to discuss how we harness the power of each system in a way that benefited humanity.




  • The BRICS are already trading without dollars. They might price things in USD, but the actual trades don’t use USD.

    But is he really gonna tariff 55% of the global population?

    The world economy will just adjust to operate without the USA. It will be painful and take a few years, but it will also be irreversible.

    To be frank, we don’t need a global reserve currency in this digital age. Businesses and consumers can cheaply trade any currency pairs with minimal costs.

    The dollar’s status is a leftover from the past.


  • My (great)-grandparents were part of the Dutch resistance during WW2. Along with a full 1.5% of the population.

    Most people will not do anything, even if they are literally rounding up people for a genocide.

    On the more positive side, a lot of people will support the resistance in small ways.

    The number of people who actually, whole heartedly collaborated with the Nazi’s was quite small.

    Even some of the German soldiers stationed in their village would turn a blind eye. Some of them realized they were on the wrong side and they just did the bare minimum of what they needed to do to not get in trouble and not get killed.





  • The only country that can be blamed for destroying Iraqi industry is the USA. Two decades of war, one decade of sanctions and another decade of war (by Saddam against Iran) sponsored by the USA in the 1980s.

    Obviously, Iranian industry will outcompete Iraqi industry at this point in history.

    Iraq needs to rebuild and they need outside help.

    I’m not gonna defend Iranian war mongering. And neither will I defend Turkish war mongering, or IS, USA or Israeli war mongering.

    But the only path forward for Iraq is by making peace with the two power brokers in the region: Turkey and Iran.

    And that’s what the current government is trying to achieve. The Turkey-Iraq corridor and the new port they are building are going to lay the foundation for their future prosperity.

    As for Iran, Iran is desperate for allies. It won’t be that difficult to find some mutually beneficial relationship with them.


  • It’s more-or-less geographic destiny that Iran and Turkey will become the dominant powers in Western Asia.

    They both basically ruled the area for most of history.

    The best we (the West) could do is nudge them towards human rights and peace and friendship. For Turkey, that’s mostly a done deal.

    For Iran, that was exactly what Obama tried to do. And it’s also what Iran has been trying to get for the past 25 years.

    Iran is inherently on a path towards secularisation and more dovish policies. It’s the threat of war by the US and Israel that keeps the defense hawks in power.

    Iran, especially, will never fully trust the USA - and for good reason. But they do want better relations with the USA. They just don’t want to get burned or bombed.