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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • Not really. Although the genetic diversity across the entire continent is higher, limits to mate selection is common. Location, culture, economics, language, etc, all limit the genetic pool that people have to choose a mate from. So in-group inbreeding is relatively common.

    Humans have lived in smaller groups with limited mate choice for most of our evolutionary history. A lower level of inbreeding improves fecundity (around 4th cousins). Once the inbreeding coefficient gets to around 2nd cousins, that’s when problems arise. This happens often in small tribes.

    Smaller polygamous groups quickly develop issues with inbreeding. The entire group often has an inbreeding coefficient around 1st cousins or even siblings (example - polygamous Mormons).

    Now Uganda is a bit different because the polygamous group is large. This limits inbreeding effects.




  • Agriculture is water intensive. The more land we use, the more water we need. Whether from the sky or from a irrigation canal, it’s still water used to grow crops not native environments. Reducing our land footprint reduces our total water usage. That’s what matters, not the per hectare usage.

    Corn and wheat - just irrigating itincreases the average yield by 2x to 10x depending on the region.

    If you’ve never been in a 50 hectare greenhouse it’s hard to imagine (they are 12-15m tall). These greenhouses are all in soil as well. The larger a greenhouse is the more efficient it is as maintaining temperature. You can get 2-3 cycles per year in them depending on light levels. So the yields are irrigated + 50% per cycle and 2-3 cycles per year instead of 1 cycle. Supplemental lighting can push it to a solid 3 cycles.



  • Irrigated and/or protected culture… Protected culture for the crops that make sense. Irrigated in for all others.

    We farm the way we do because historically we go through periods of innovation then stagnation. When the way we farm no longer works and we either rapidly innovate again or the civilization flounders and dies due to famine and war.

    “Enormously expensive,” it’s all in perspective. It’s damn cheap compared to the cost of the environmental damage we are currently doing. FYI The equipment and technology already exist to do it as well.


  • The best thing for the environment and soil health is to not farm it. There is no such thing as environmentally friendly agriculture. It is always destructive.

    We farm the land we do because it’s profitable.

    Irrigated acres make up less than 7% of the land area used for agriculture but produce 65% of the total yield.

    Protected culture (greenhouses, high tunnels, etc) produce 10x to 20x more per acre than open field production.

    Increasing our water storage and transport infrastructure on a massive scale, combined with expansion of protected culture could reduce our agricultural land requirements by as much as 80%. All wiithout changing our diets.

    Imagine 80% of the farmland rewilded? Massive stretches of native ecosystems rebounding without fertilizer or sprays.



  • I think that the data Ukraine has on Russian losses is better than in any previous conflict. The drones are constantly flying over the battlefield recording.

    I also think that Ukraine has significant political reasons for attempting to be reasonably accurate. They rely on NATO for money, weapons, and supplies. They need to provide an reasonably accurate representation of what they are doing with the resources to keep their suppliers happy.

    It doesn’t need to be exact, just a reasonable estimate made in good faith.




  • Long range attacks are about knocking out supplies, the ability to produce new supplies, and the ability to get supplies to the front line.

    Say Russia is getting more newly made artillery shells to the front line. The best way to fix this is to blow up the factories.

    If you can’t take out the factories directly, take out components that the factories need to operate: ore processing, fuel refineries, electricity grid, etc.

    The problem is all the critical targets are a long ways from the front line and Ukraine currently has limited capacity to hit them.

    Meanwhile Russia is targeting all of Ukraine’s internal infrastructure constantly.

    Long wars are won by the production capabilities of the groups involved as much as the front line troops.





  • I am of the opinion that most “supply” issues are due to investors. Except in certain geographic areas we do not have a shortage of actual physical housing. What we have is a shortage of available housing at a mixed pricepoints for purchase.

    All housing that investors purchase for rentals removes it from the supply.

    Traditionally investors have sought out entry level housing for rent. They invest in building rental complexes. They make all cash purchases and then rent it out to people who otherwise would have been first-time homebuyers. Investors used to be the low end offer. Blatant price fixing has increased rent outrageously. Now investors are the high end offer and removing supply constantly.

    With AirB&B, the middle and even upper range market that traditionally has had less investor competition is now a major target. This has led to price wars for investment purposes on previously safe segments.

    The first solution to the housing supply is simple: taxing income from rent so that selling the property is financially more lucrative. It will have to include a prohibition against rental increases to cover the taxes as well.

    The second is to mandate zoning and new construction to match the market needs not the needs of the investors.

    Last would be to create a program where builders who focus on entry level housing receive incentives from governments (also include hefty penalty for substandard construction).