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Cake day: June 7th, 2025

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  • We are not ready though. Mentally, sure, but in case of an all out war we would still run out of ammo, bombs and manpower in weeks. Only now do we see the first factories and production lines coming online based on the investments of the past years and even then not all the supply lines have been adjusted for it. Europe could probably be ready by the end of 2027 at the earliest, provided it removes its command and control dependency from the US.

    Realistically, Europe won’t be ready until 2030. That’s not to say we wouldn’t be able to get ready sooner, we absolutely would, if we were to switch to a war economy. But nobody wants that, because it ruins your economy and is grossly expensive.

    That doesn’t mean we would get crushed, that wouldn’t be the case, but we would be on the defensive for a while until the gears of war are properly greased.







  • Infrastructure spending? This is Russia we are talking about. From every ruble spent by the government, at least 75% disappears if not more. The systemic corruption in Russia will obliterate any supposed advantage they have by ending the war.

    And those foreign assets are only partially government assets. These include investment accounts of normal Russians, payment to companies that have been held back, etc… We are talking billions but Russia is bleeding billions every month now, and the release of those assets will only partially mitigate the unfolding souffle like collapse of the Russian economy. It’s not a sudden crash, just a general return to poverty.

    A return of fossil fuel sales to prewar income would help, but I don’t see that happening as long as they occupy the Donbas and Crimea. Some sanctions will be lifted in case of a peace agreement but not even regime change will roll back all of the sanctions.






  • Sure, but they also suffer the consequences of their own focus on pushing out more and more SUV’s instead of focusing on EV. Volkswagen actually made the correct choice going fully for EV’s, but then backtracked under shareholder pressure. And the EU as a whole failed to protect local battery production and technology, allowing itself (although this also goes for the US, Japan and South-Korea) to become completely dependent on Chinese raw materials refinement and battery production and technology.

    China on the other hand, not suffering from fair and free elections, had a much easier time keeping its eye on the ball and sticking with a coherent long term vision.

    That being said, I do think it’s good for Germany to become less dependent on their car industry. They have a lot of industries screaming for highly qualified employees and the car industry has been vacuuming up a majority of those. These people becoming available for other industries will provide significant benefits as well.








  • Two things I think. They gambled on fuel cells because it offers an easier solution at a time when charging stations were rare. It’s Tesla becoming popular very quickly followed by VW going all out on EV that really caught them on the backfoot. The second thing is that they underestimated the level of change to battery technology. They (at the time correctly) stated that for every 10 EV’s, they could make 90 hybrids. While that is still valid, the battery technology has evolved significantly and become cheaper in the process. Even 2 years ago you couldn’t find an EV in Europe for under 30k €, now there are several cars to choose from and not only Chinese cars either.