President has claimed the US needs to acquire Greenland for national security purposes — a move that European allies see as a threat to the Arctic island’s sovereignty
traders on prediction markets don’t think so, at least not for some time.
There’s just a four percent chance on Polymarket that Trump will acquire Greenland before 2027.
On Kalshi, there’s just a 6.8 percent chance the US will acquire any new territory before 2027, though the odds are slightly better on a longer timeline. There’s a 22 percent chance the US will acquire a new territory before Trump’s term ends on January 20, 2029.
🤮 Why the actual fuck are journalists reporting on what “prediction markets” “think”? Between this and “which Europeans see as a violation of Greenland’s sovereignty” this article seems to casually legitimize trump’s claim
I think they have (unfortunately correctly) realized that the prediction markets can be bastardized into a quick and dirty public opinion poll without needing to do any of that dirty icky work like sending out questionaires or controlling statistical poll biases
Worse, prediction markets measure what people with money (AKA the ruling class) think is going to happen. Given their higher access to information and people to more or less objectively process that information, that means you’d expect a decent correlation between prediction market predictions and reality.
Indeed, these are way better than a simple opinion poll if your goal is an actual prediction. People who are good at making predictions will be rewarded and continue to participate, those who are just going by vibes or whatever will lose money and hopefully learn to stay away. “Insider information” is kind of the point of markets like this, it’s a way to surface that information to the outside world.
Indeed, I am tired of “public” opinion (which is more wall-street-type-dudes’ opinion) being even considered on matters like this. I don’t care if 100% of Americans support it or have resigned to it happening, the only opinion that matters is Greenland’s, as unless they democratically decide to join the US (no chance of that happening anytime soon), anything else is an invasion plain and simple, no matter if polymarket says that will make line go up
The only reason to consider them (which is not what the media is doing) is because we’ve already confirmed Trump and likely countless other corrupt goons of his have been placing massive bets on events they know for a fact Trump is going to act on. Insider “gambling”.
Because people with huge amounts of money also have inside information.
If the markets showed more favorably, it would be a legitimate indicator that there are more discussions of this happening amongst top brass. That there are no people nakedly staking profiteering bets on this is legitimate information worth comparing against the presidents words.
Like I understand polymarket and kalshi are gross things and they’re morally bankrupt, but surely you understand why a journalist would reference this very legitimate barometer of information…?
Journalists reporting on prediction markets aren’t journalists. They’re opinion writers. They need to stir up possible intigues in order to get those clicks for cash.
🤮 Why the actual fuck are journalists reporting on what “prediction markets” “think”? Between this and “which Europeans see as a violation of Greenland’s sovereignty” this article seems to casually legitimize trump’s claim
I think they have (unfortunately correctly) realized that the prediction markets can be bastardized into a quick and dirty public opinion poll without needing to do any of that dirty icky work like sending out questionaires or controlling statistical poll biases
Worse, prediction markets measure what people with money (AKA the ruling class) think is going to happen. Given their higher access to information and people to more or less objectively process that information, that means you’d expect a decent correlation between prediction market predictions and reality.
Indeed, these are way better than a simple opinion poll if your goal is an actual prediction. People who are good at making predictions will be rewarded and continue to participate, those who are just going by vibes or whatever will lose money and hopefully learn to stay away. “Insider information” is kind of the point of markets like this, it’s a way to surface that information to the outside world.
Indeed, I am tired of “public” opinion (which is more wall-street-type-dudes’ opinion) being even considered on matters like this. I don’t care if 100% of Americans support it or have resigned to it happening, the only opinion that matters is Greenland’s, as unless they democratically decide to join the US (no chance of that happening anytime soon), anything else is an invasion plain and simple, no matter if polymarket says that will make line go up
I mean you should, because if a critical mass of Americans supports it it’s gonna happen. Welcome to the business end of American imperialism.
Some also have advertising deals with those prediction markets, so them saying things about it is really just a quick ad break in some cases 🫠
The only reason to consider them (which is not what the media is doing) is because we’ve already confirmed Trump and likely countless other corrupt goons of his have been placing massive bets on events they know for a fact Trump is going to act on. Insider “gambling”.
Because people with huge amounts of money also have inside information.
If the markets showed more favorably, it would be a legitimate indicator that there are more discussions of this happening amongst top brass. That there are no people nakedly staking profiteering bets on this is legitimate information worth comparing against the presidents words.
Like I understand polymarket and kalshi are gross things and they’re morally bankrupt, but surely you understand why a journalist would reference this very legitimate barometer of information…?
It’s a refreshing break from them only reporting on what people are tweeting about an issue.
Journalists reporting on prediction markets aren’t journalists. They’re opinion writers. They need to stir up possible intigues in order to get those clicks for cash.