I checked another article that says it’s thought not to be related and linked it above, also indicating that it was not in territorial waters.
Anyway, say it did happen in territorial waters, they would still have to make that determination of whether the cost is worth the benefit. It definitely sends a message to your people, partners and enemies that you’re taking your defense seriously which has benefits of its own, but escalation can also unsettle investors who may view the country as less safe than it was before which can ding the economy and stock market. Plus Russia would likely seek revenge through whatever non-military means it has available which may or may not hurt badly depending on how deep their bag of tricks goes for the situation in question.
For example, years ago Turkey famously blew up a Russian jet that intruded upon their territory, a pretty strong declaration of sovereignty. Since Turkey has a lot of economic ties with its Black Sea neighbor Russia, Russia was able to use those ties as leverage to inflict quite a lot of economic damage on Turkey in retaliation along with laying on diplomatic pressure. At the time many of Turkey’s partners were not happy with Turkey and more interested in smoothing over things with Russia so they provided Turkey little support, and Russia continued incursions in Turkish airspace. Since Turkey was kind of isolated anyway and ailing with those pains and tensions, they took a more Russia-accomodating policy to ease those burdens such as re-allowing Russian planes to fly over to Syria (until 2022 when the ban was reinstated) and doing the infamous S-400 deal. At the time Turkey probably regretted blowing up the plane for the headaches it brought on, although now many of the other countries in the area would probably look more favorably on what Turkey did than they did at the time.
So, whether it’s a good call to take the shot or not can depend on many things like if your neighborhood would back you up, what ties would the power making an incursion have that could be leveraged against you, are you in a sensitive political situation at home that may be aggravated with a worse economy or bolstered by looking strong against incursion, etc.
yeah im not sure turkey is the best example. I mean if you otherwise a relatively rationally acting democracy it feels like you should not allow any military incursion into your actual territory as its just such a slippery slope.
I picked the Turkey example because it’s a relatively rare example of a country deciding to blow up a manned vehicle, along with the attending raft of consequences that probably shows why fewer countries opt for that course of action. But there have actually been a lot of incursions of jets and spy ships and such things into many NATO countries both before and after the war, to say nothing of drones. The drones are usually blown up because no one really cares that much since they don’t carry a live person. Manned incursions are often solved peacefully because the incentives usually fall on the politicians to not rock the boat and keep the status quo, but maybe with a diplomatic protest or more aid sent against a foe of that country.
I checked another article that says it’s thought not to be related and linked it above, also indicating that it was not in territorial waters.
Anyway, say it did happen in territorial waters, they would still have to make that determination of whether the cost is worth the benefit. It definitely sends a message to your people, partners and enemies that you’re taking your defense seriously which has benefits of its own, but escalation can also unsettle investors who may view the country as less safe than it was before which can ding the economy and stock market. Plus Russia would likely seek revenge through whatever non-military means it has available which may or may not hurt badly depending on how deep their bag of tricks goes for the situation in question.
For example, years ago Turkey famously blew up a Russian jet that intruded upon their territory, a pretty strong declaration of sovereignty. Since Turkey has a lot of economic ties with its Black Sea neighbor Russia, Russia was able to use those ties as leverage to inflict quite a lot of economic damage on Turkey in retaliation along with laying on diplomatic pressure. At the time many of Turkey’s partners were not happy with Turkey and more interested in smoothing over things with Russia so they provided Turkey little support, and Russia continued incursions in Turkish airspace. Since Turkey was kind of isolated anyway and ailing with those pains and tensions, they took a more Russia-accomodating policy to ease those burdens such as re-allowing Russian planes to fly over to Syria (until 2022 when the ban was reinstated) and doing the infamous S-400 deal. At the time Turkey probably regretted blowing up the plane for the headaches it brought on, although now many of the other countries in the area would probably look more favorably on what Turkey did than they did at the time.
So, whether it’s a good call to take the shot or not can depend on many things like if your neighborhood would back you up, what ties would the power making an incursion have that could be leveraged against you, are you in a sensitive political situation at home that may be aggravated with a worse economy or bolstered by looking strong against incursion, etc.
yeah im not sure turkey is the best example. I mean if you otherwise a relatively rationally acting democracy it feels like you should not allow any military incursion into your actual territory as its just such a slippery slope.
I picked the Turkey example because it’s a relatively rare example of a country deciding to blow up a manned vehicle, along with the attending raft of consequences that probably shows why fewer countries opt for that course of action. But there have actually been a lot of incursions of jets and spy ships and such things into many NATO countries both before and after the war, to say nothing of drones. The drones are usually blown up because no one really cares that much since they don’t carry a live person. Manned incursions are often solved peacefully because the incentives usually fall on the politicians to not rock the boat and keep the status quo, but maybe with a diplomatic protest or more aid sent against a foe of that country.