The third Gulf war is worrying the world’s farmers. A third of seaborne fertiliser exports come from the region; most have been stopped by Iran’s blockade. Urea, the most widely used of the lot, is around 70% dearer than before the war; ammonia, another nitrogen fertiliser, is 39% pricier (see chart). Madeleine Overgaard of Kpler, a data provider, reckons nearly 1.9m tonnes of plant nutrients are stuck on board 41 ships that cannot leave the Gulf—equal to 12% of all the fertiliser shipped out of the strait in 2024.
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Food prices are hard to predict. But estimates from the Kiel Institute, a German think-tank, are dire. Its researchers calculate that prices could rise by more than 10% in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Taiwan. In Zambia they could shoot up by 30%. The World Food Programme, another un agency, has said that a prolonged war could raise the number of people in acute hunger by 45m, to 363m.
After a decade of record setting food price inflation, let’s have some more inflation. We seriously need to reign these fucking psychopaths in.