

Then why did you bring it up? My entire post was an argument that China has no incentive to want Russia to win the war. Did you intend to respond to some other post?


Then why did you bring it up? My entire post was an argument that China has no incentive to want Russia to win the war. Did you intend to respond to some other post?


Why would China need Russia to win in Ukraine to gauge the West’s reaction? They’ve already seen the reaction to an invasion.
China has repeatedly shown that they have a much better tool against Taiwan than an invasion. Every time they want to rattle their sabre at Taiwan they blockade the entire island. They’ve done it many times and nobody does anything about it. Nobody has any realistic proposals on what they would do about it. Taiwan is a very densely populated island. It will run out of just about everything very quickly.


If China wanted to invade Russia. Why would they want Russia to win a war first? Why would it be easier for China to wait for hundreds of thousands of troops to be freed up. If China wanted to invade Russia, it’s hard to think of a better time than right now. They would be caught with their entire army on the wrong side of the country and most of the world lined up to support China, or at least stay out of the way. The only deterrent is Russia’s nuclear arsenal and that wouldn’t go away after a victory in Ukraine either.


It becomes fairly obvious when you think about what the likely effects would be.
Let’s say Russia achieves all it’s military obejctevies; they crush the Ukrainian military, the remaining civilian population offers an unconditional surrender, and Russia is able to completely annex Ukraine. Then what?
Then China’s biggest and most powerful neighbor would be even bigger and more powerful. Once hostilities ceased, Russia would slowly be able to start selling oil to the rest of the world again so China wouldn’t get as good a deal and the negotiations on Power of Siberia would get more complicated.
Where is the upside for China?


This is satire, right?
Sort of. I’ve switched to Kagi and I mostly like it. They clearly don’t have as much of the internet indexed but they have most of it and the stuff they do have is properly searchable.
Google has more stuff but they hide the actual result under a pile of garbage.